Handling Uncertainty

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  • Handling the Issue of Uncertainty
  • How uncertainties affect vulnerability assessments
  • The categories of uncertainty
  • How to conduct local uncertainty analysis
  • Adaptation activities can be win-win actions that also promote mitigation and/ or sustainable resource use or economic opportunities. In somecases, a cost- benefit analysis and political decisions are required in order to map and weightconsequences (e.g. flood walls).
  • New climate models are being developed by the IPCC in preparation for the next assessment report, and more mechanisms will be included thanin previous models; in particular, modelling how rising temperature can lead to increased emissionsof methane from melting tundra, and how this inturn could add to the greenhouse effect (negative feedback mechanisms).Model uncertainty will thus be reduced, but paradoxically, the uncertainty and variability of the prognoses will in turn increase.
  •  The “uncertainty” Dilemma
  • Basic uncertainty – Lack of basic knowledge on cause-effect relationships
  • Model uncertainty – Not succeeded in modelling known cause-effect relationships
  • Scale uncertainty – Models produce a wide variety when downscaling climate projections
  • Data uncertainty – Lack of input data leads to models producing unreliable results

 

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